[M-IS05] Environmental, Socio-economic, and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS05-P07] The impact of climate change on agriculture in Siberia in the XXI century

*Nadezhda Nikolaevna Voropai^1,2、Marina Sergeevna Petukhova³、Anna Alexandrovna Ryazanova¹ (1.Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia, Tomsk, Akademicheskii 10/3、2.V.B.Sochava Institute of Geography of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia, Irkutsk, Ulan-Batorskaya, 1、3.Novosibirsk State Agrarian University, Novosibirsk, Russia)

キーワード：agriculture , climate change, Siberian federal district, hydrothermal coefficient, yield

The research is devoted to the study of climatic changes on the territory of the Siberian Federal District and the assessment of their impact on agricultural production in the macro-region. The materials and methods of the study were climatic indicators: average annual air temperature; annual sum of atmospheric precipitation; dates of air temperature transition through 0, +5, +10 ° C in the direction of temperature rise and fall; period with air temperature above 0, +5, +10 ° C; hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninov. The study showed that now, in the period of the most intensive warming, there is an increase in the duration of the growing season and the frost-free period (1-3 days every 10 years). The analysis of the hydrothermal coefficient showed an increase in aridity in the Tyva and Altai Republics and the Irkutsk Oblast. The increase in the average annual temperature has a different impact on the yield of cereals and legumes in the administrative subjects of the district. If in the northern regions of Siberia warming leads to an increase in the yield index, in the southern regions - to a decrease, i.e. in the north of the SFD global warming will be accompanied by an increase in the growing season, frost-free period, etc. It will be possible to grow new varieties, including late-maturing varieties. In the southern regions, the increasing aridity of the climate will lead to an increase in the number of droughts and consequently to a reduction in crop yields. In these regions, it will be necessary to use drought-resistant crop varieties and to introduce technologies for pre-sowing seed treatment and mineral fertilisation.
Uncertainty surrounds the question of how agricultural areas will develop as global warming continues. CMIP 6 scenario projections are used as a basis for further projections, with adjustments based on historical data. According to the calculations, there will be a shift of natural zones in the territory of Siberia in the 21st century. This shift will be a key factor in possible changes in the structure and direction of economic activity in rural areas. As a result, three scenarios of long-term development of the rural territories of the Siberian Federal District are considered: "Climatic adaptation" (adaptation of the rural economy to the modelled natural-climatic changes), "Climatic mitigation" (development of measures aimed at eliminating or reducing long-term risks), and "Climatic crisis" (absence of any measures on the part of local, regional and federal authorities and the population to adapt and/or mitigate economic activity to natural-climatic changes). The choice of a particular scenario makes it possible to define the action plan needed at the present time to achieve the desired image of rural areas.