[M-IS05] Environmental, Socio-economic, and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS05-P13] Paving Arctic Mobility: Insights from the Community Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (CATAM)

*Emma Haggerty¹, Dmitry Streletskiy¹ (1.George Washington University)

Keywords:Accessibility, Transportation, Infrastructure, Permafrost, Climate Change

In the coming century, frozen landscapes in the Arctic region face numerous obstacles to the sustainability of their critical infrastructure. Transportation efficiency will suffer from the loss of terrestrial accessibility on which mobility in the Arctic depends. This research is developed from the Community Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (CATAM) which evaluates critical characteristics of transport infrastructure at risk of damage in the twenty-first century, including vulnerabilities in permanent roads and railroads as well as seasonal winter and ice roads. This iteration of CATAM uses CMIP6 data from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM) to provide a comprehensive analysis of future terrestrial hazards for moderate (SSP245) and fossil-intensive (SSP585) projected climate scenarios. Transportation impacts were explored for the eight member states of the Arctic Council: the United States (Alaska), Canada, Finland, Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. Simulations revealed a widespread decline in overland accessibility by mid-century, with central Canada, Alaska, and Eurasia experiencing the greatest disruptions. Both travel cost and travel speed for transportation are expected to increase in over 90% of critical administrative units for these nations. Transportation regions highlighted by the results of this research serve to inform Arctic policymakers and planners of the valuable insights needed to develop reliable and sustainable transportation infrastructure by 2050.