[M-IS09] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

[MIS09-04] Stress-informed ETAS model and its application to reservoir earthquakes

★Invited Papers

*Peng Han¹, Rui Wang¹, Miao Miao¹, Cuiping Zhao², Renqi Lu³, Hongfu Lei⁴, Mengdi Yao⁴, Jiancang Zhuang⁵, Qinghua Huang⁶, Katsumi Hattori⁷ (1.Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China, 2.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, China, 3.Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration,China, 4.China Three Gorges Construction Engineering Corporation, Chengdu, China, 5.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 6.Peking University, Beijing, China, 7.Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan)

Keywords:probabilistic forecast model, reservoir earthquakes, ETAS

Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely used statistical models applied to earthquake prediction. As a statistical method, ETAS and its extension are all based on earthquake catalogs that usually ignore the physical mechanism. The ETAS model may not describe seismicity well when the regional stress changes frequently, e.g., reservoirs, shale gas extraction, and wastewater injection. To address this, we propose a new earthquake probabilistic forecast model by integrating regional stress evolution, i.e., Stress-informed ETAS model. We applied this new model to reservoir earthquakes in the Jinsha River, China. The detailed results will be shown in our presentation.