12:00 〜 12:15
[MIS09-06] Integrating Seismo-Magnetic Anomalies and the ETAS Model for Earthquake Precursors: A Case Study in the Kanto Region, Japan
キーワード：ETAS モデル、自己励起・外部励起モデル、地震前兆情報、地震磁気異常
Previous research showed that there was the relationship between the ultralow frequency (ULF, frequency is 0.01Hz) seismo-magnetic phenomena and larger earthquakes in the Kakioka region, Japan. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model is the most popular stochastic model used to describe earthquake occurrence, to capture earthquake clustering and aftershock sequences. However, it has limitations in distinguishing foreshocks from background seismicity and does not inherently account for non-seismic precursors.
In this study, we investigate seismic activity in the Kanto region of Japan from 2001 to 2010, focusing on earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.0 and above within a 100 km radius of the Kakioka Geomagnetic Observatory. We integrate seismo-magnetic anomaly data recorded at Kakioka with the Self-Exciting and External Exciting Model, an extension of the ETAS model that incorporates external triggering factors. By combining seismo-magnetic anomaly data with the ETAS model, we aim to improve the identification of potential earthquake precursors and explore the relationship between seismic activity and seismo-magnetic anomalies. The results based on the self-exciting and external exciting model, as evaluated through the ROC curve, demonstrate significantly better predictive performance compared to random predictions. This comprehensive model that combines larger earthquake and seismo-magnetic signals has better forecasting ability. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the feasibility of electromagnetic signals as early-warning indicators and the broader interaction between seismic and seismo-magnetic processes.
In this study, we investigate seismic activity in the Kanto region of Japan from 2001 to 2010, focusing on earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.0 and above within a 100 km radius of the Kakioka Geomagnetic Observatory. We integrate seismo-magnetic anomaly data recorded at Kakioka with the Self-Exciting and External Exciting Model, an extension of the ETAS model that incorporates external triggering factors. By combining seismo-magnetic anomaly data with the ETAS model, we aim to improve the identification of potential earthquake precursors and explore the relationship between seismic activity and seismo-magnetic anomalies. The results based on the self-exciting and external exciting model, as evaluated through the ROC curve, demonstrate significantly better predictive performance compared to random predictions. This comprehensive model that combines larger earthquake and seismo-magnetic signals has better forecasting ability. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the feasibility of electromagnetic signals as early-warning indicators and the broader interaction between seismic and seismo-magnetic processes.