5:15 PM - 7:15 PM
[MIS22-P13] Viticulture suitability estimates under climate change
Keywords:Climate change, Viticulture, Maximum entropy model, Adaptation
This study aimed to estimate viticulture suitability estimates under current and future climate conditions in Japan. We predicted regional grape cultivation suitability using MaxEnt, a multivariate model for estimating grape suitability. We found that variations in precipitation and humidity largely determine the viticulture suitability in Japan under current climate conditions, which is characteristic of relatively humid regions. New viticulture suitable areas under current climate were identified in northern Japan, including parts of Fukushima and Hokkaido. Estimated future changes in viticulture suitability showed a significant decline in the current active viticulture regions, such as the Kofu Basin, over time. In contrast, a substantial increase in suitability was observed across wide areas of Hokkaido. Overall, climate change will lead to a geographical shift in Japanese viticulture regions, generally moving towards more northern and higher-altitude areas. Additionally, we examined how viticulture suitability changes will respond to shifts in grapevine phenology with the perspective of potential local adaptations. The results suggest that in the Kofu Basin, the degree of suitability decline could be mitigated by shifting the growing season forward.