16:15 〜 16:30
[MZZ40-10] Economic Evaluation of Planetary Diffence and Making appropriate Insurance
キーワード：低頻度・巨大損失事象
Introduction
As humanity progresses into the Space Age, prioritizing different types of natural disasters becomes crucial, particularly considering both planetary-scale catastrophes and frequent localized disasters. This study aims to categorize and prioritize disasters based on their probability and consequence to improve preparedness and public interest in space-based disasters.
Classification of Disasters
On a planetary scale, three major low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events pose significant threats:Volcanic Disasters – Supervolcanic eruptions with global climatic and geological impacts.Asteroid Impacts – Potentially catastrophic events affecting planetary ecosystems.Long-Term Climate Changes – Gradual but severe alterations in Earth's environment.In contrast, humans are more frequently affected by high-probability, low-to-medium-consequence (HPLC) events, including:Large FloodsEpidemicsEarthquakesTsunamisSmall-to-Medium Scale Volcanic EruptionsAs human activity expands into space, additional hazards such as space radiation, low gravity, and frequent asteroid encounters will increase vulnerability.
Probability vs. Consequence: The Challenge of Risk Assessment
LPHC events have extremely low occurrence probabilities but could lead to catastrophic outcomes. On the other hand, HPLC events occur more frequently but cause localized damage rather than global devastation. Currently, risk assessment relies on three key assumptions:The probability of human-impacting asteroid collisions is historically low.This probability remains relatively stable over time.Advanced detection systems will identify hazardous objects in time to mitigate threats.If these assumptions fail, current financial and emergency preparedness mechanisms would be insufficient to handle the impact. Therefore, it is crucial to re-evaluate the risk models for catastrophic LPHC events, particularly asteroid impacts.
Developing a Probabilistic Framework for Asteroid Impact Preparedness
To better prepare for catastrophic LPHC disasters like asteroid impacts, a probabilistic comparison table is required to analyze occurrence likelihood and consequences. However, due to a lack of sufficient historical and observational data, constructing such a table is a complex task.
Beyond traditional probability-based records, establishing a physically induced probability model is necessary. The key challenge is that the temporal distribution of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) remains uncertain, making impact risk predictions highly variable.
Policy and Insurance Mechanisms for Space-Based Risks
This study explores assumptions that could enhance the development of insurance mechanisms and public policy, even in cases where traditional probability models are insufficient. By incorporating novel approaches, such as advanced tracking of space hazards and risk-sharing financial strategies, humanity can better prepare for space-age disasters.
As humanity progresses into the Space Age, prioritizing different types of natural disasters becomes crucial, particularly considering both planetary-scale catastrophes and frequent localized disasters. This study aims to categorize and prioritize disasters based on their probability and consequence to improve preparedness and public interest in space-based disasters.
Classification of Disasters
On a planetary scale, three major low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events pose significant threats:Volcanic Disasters – Supervolcanic eruptions with global climatic and geological impacts.Asteroid Impacts – Potentially catastrophic events affecting planetary ecosystems.Long-Term Climate Changes – Gradual but severe alterations in Earth's environment.In contrast, humans are more frequently affected by high-probability, low-to-medium-consequence (HPLC) events, including:Large FloodsEpidemicsEarthquakesTsunamisSmall-to-Medium Scale Volcanic EruptionsAs human activity expands into space, additional hazards such as space radiation, low gravity, and frequent asteroid encounters will increase vulnerability.
Probability vs. Consequence: The Challenge of Risk Assessment
LPHC events have extremely low occurrence probabilities but could lead to catastrophic outcomes. On the other hand, HPLC events occur more frequently but cause localized damage rather than global devastation. Currently, risk assessment relies on three key assumptions:The probability of human-impacting asteroid collisions is historically low.This probability remains relatively stable over time.Advanced detection systems will identify hazardous objects in time to mitigate threats.If these assumptions fail, current financial and emergency preparedness mechanisms would be insufficient to handle the impact. Therefore, it is crucial to re-evaluate the risk models for catastrophic LPHC events, particularly asteroid impacts.
Developing a Probabilistic Framework for Asteroid Impact Preparedness
To better prepare for catastrophic LPHC disasters like asteroid impacts, a probabilistic comparison table is required to analyze occurrence likelihood and consequences. However, due to a lack of sufficient historical and observational data, constructing such a table is a complex task.
Beyond traditional probability-based records, establishing a physically induced probability model is necessary. The key challenge is that the temporal distribution of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) remains uncertain, making impact risk predictions highly variable.
Policy and Insurance Mechanisms for Space-Based Risks
This study explores assumptions that could enhance the development of insurance mechanisms and public policy, even in cases where traditional probability models are insufficient. By incorporating novel approaches, such as advanced tracking of space hazards and risk-sharing financial strategies, humanity can better prepare for space-age disasters.