3:30 PM - 3:45 PM
[MZZ41-07] Transformation of Social Impact in Earthquake Prediction Hypothesis
Keywords:Earthquake Prediction, Hypothesis, Social Impact
Earth science often deals with events that occur infrequently and on large spatio-temporal scales. Because of the difficulty of experiments and observations, “hypotheses” that explain mechanisms and laws are often proposed and then verified by accumulating data over a long period of time. Furthermore, some hypotheses are extremely difficult to verify in, in which case they are left unexamined.
In Japan, earthquakes are an earth science phenomenon of the highest public interest, and many hypotheses have been proposed to predict them. In this study, we examine the “thermal transport hypothesis” (Tsunoda and Fuji, 2022) of earthquake inducement. The heat transfer hypothesis postulates that earthquakes and eruptions are triggered by the horizontal transfer of heat from the mantle plume. A hitting rate of this hypothesis is very high, 90.7% for M7+ earthquakes and 90.0% for M8+ earthquakes, according to the author's estimations.
We applied the method of Kato (2023) and tested it using the ISC earthquake catalog for the 21-year period from 2000 to 2020. As a result, we could not see the relationship proposed by the thermal transfer hypothesis, which predicts a series of deep earthquakes as a precursor to a later, shallower, major earthquake. The high accuracy of this hypothesis can be attributed to the length of the one-year warning period.
The thermal transport hypothesis is strongly influenced by anti-plate tectonics ideology [Tsunoda (2016), Tsunoda and Fuji (2024)]. There one can also see a lack of understanding of basic seismological knowledge. Furthermore, there are not a few statements that mislead readers by complicating the probability of earthquakes that have nothing to do with plate tectonics.
Unlike in the 1980s, when the anti-plate tectonics movement had a certain influence, today, with the spread of the SNS, anyone can disseminate information. In such situations, the heat transfer hypothesis continues to receive positive coverage in the influential media.
In Japan, earthquakes are an earth science phenomenon of the highest public interest, and many hypotheses have been proposed to predict them. In this study, we examine the “thermal transport hypothesis” (Tsunoda and Fuji, 2022) of earthquake inducement. The heat transfer hypothesis postulates that earthquakes and eruptions are triggered by the horizontal transfer of heat from the mantle plume. A hitting rate of this hypothesis is very high, 90.7% for M7+ earthquakes and 90.0% for M8+ earthquakes, according to the author's estimations.
We applied the method of Kato (2023) and tested it using the ISC earthquake catalog for the 21-year period from 2000 to 2020. As a result, we could not see the relationship proposed by the thermal transfer hypothesis, which predicts a series of deep earthquakes as a precursor to a later, shallower, major earthquake. The high accuracy of this hypothesis can be attributed to the length of the one-year warning period.
The thermal transport hypothesis is strongly influenced by anti-plate tectonics ideology [Tsunoda (2016), Tsunoda and Fuji (2024)]. There one can also see a lack of understanding of basic seismological knowledge. Furthermore, there are not a few statements that mislead readers by complicating the probability of earthquakes that have nothing to do with plate tectonics.
Unlike in the 1980s, when the anti-plate tectonics movement had a certain influence, today, with the spread of the SNS, anyone can disseminate information. In such situations, the heat transfer hypothesis continues to receive positive coverage in the influential media.