1:45 PM - 3:15 PM
[O11-P13] Development of an original method of weather restoration for the “historical period” using historical documents.
Keywords:detail rate, precipitation thresholds, original restoration method
1.Motivation for research
In 2022, the precipitation occurrence rate in the Inatsuka Family Diary (Ikeda, Osaka, 1758-1912) was restored using multiple regression analysis, and in 2023, the Inatsuka Family Diary and the Ikeda Shrine Diary (1715-1850) were connected and restored using Piani's method.
In 2024, we devised our own method of restoring precipitation rates and used the Ishikawa Diary(1720-1912) for verification. The Ishikawa Diary is an agricultural diary that has been kept by the Ishikawa family in Higashi Asakawa-cho, Hachioji City, Tokyo, since 1720. (Fig.1)
2.Purpose of the study
Inspired by the precipitation threshold of diarypresented by Sho at the Japan Geoscience Union in 2022, we will verify our original restoration method to restore the precipitation occurrence rate (actual value) by using approximation equations between values such asprecipitation occurrence rate of diary, detailed rate of diary or precipitation occurrence rate (0.0 mm≦) of weather station.
3.Devising our school's original restoration method
Weather was adopted closer to the current JMA's four categories of occurrence, with priority given to the worse weather: snow, rain, cloudy, and clear.
4.Detail rate, Precipitation thresholds, and Data processing
The detail rate is a unique mathematical function created by Dr. Sho at Nagoya Institute of Technology.
Percentage of days with Multiple types of weather conditions, Descriptions of temporal changes, and Descriptions of the scale of precipitation As the detail rate increases, it is believed that the rate of precipitation occurrence will increase as the rate of overlooking decreases.The number of days that the daily precipitation at the weather station is equal to or greater than the threshold shall be determined to coincide with the number of days of precipitation in the diary. The rate of detail in the Ishikawa diary is higher than in previous studies (Fig. 2).
5.Data and Discussion
Data1 and Discussion:Consideration of distance between Tokyo Meteorological Observatory and Hachioji
Data1 and Discussion: Distance between Tokyo Meteorological Observatory and Hachioji.
The distance between Hachioji City and Toranomon, is about 39 km in a straight line. The correlation coefficient between the Tokyo Meteorological Observatory's precipitation occurrence rate and the diary's precipitation occurrence rate is 0.85, indicating a strong correlation(Fig.3).
Data2 and Discussion: Procedure for precipitation occurrence rate by approximate equation
Taking a hint from the restoration of precipitation occurrence rate using precipitation threshold published by Sho, We examined an original restoration method to restore the precipitation occurrence rate (0.0 mm≦) of the meteorological observatory using an approximation formula between values obtained from old documents and other sources. The procedure is as shown in Table.1.
The precipitation threshold of the diary for the period
1720-1875 is a power-law approximation equation between the detail rate and the precipitation threshold of the diary (Fig. 4) y=0.5356x-0.993
The relationship between the precipitation threshold of the weather station and the precipitation occurrence rate of the weather station from 1876 to1912 can be approximated by the logarithmic approximation equation (Fig. 5)y=-1561ln(x)+0.6153
A power-law approximation of the precipitation threshold of the weather station for the period 1720-1875 with the precipitation threshold of the diary (Fig. 6)y=1.3392x0.6484 The logarithmic approximation of the weather station precipitation occurrence rate for the period 1720-1875 in
to the weather station precipitation threshold (Fig. 7)
y = -0.147ln(x) + 0.6297
Data3 and Discussion: Comparison of precipitation occurrence rate restoration values (Fig. 8-10)
When restored using multiple regression analysis with Diary precipitation occurrence ratex1and detail ratex2 as explanatory variables and Weather station precipitation occurrence rate y as the objective variable, the coefficient of determination was 0.81. The original restoration using approximate equations is similar in trend to multiple regression analysis.
6.Future Prospects
We will search for ancient documents written in periods that include actual measurements to confirm the accuracy of our original restoration method and to consider new restoration methods for precipitation occurrence rates.
In 2022, the precipitation occurrence rate in the Inatsuka Family Diary (Ikeda, Osaka, 1758-1912) was restored using multiple regression analysis, and in 2023, the Inatsuka Family Diary and the Ikeda Shrine Diary (1715-1850) were connected and restored using Piani's method.
In 2024, we devised our own method of restoring precipitation rates and used the Ishikawa Diary(1720-1912) for verification. The Ishikawa Diary is an agricultural diary that has been kept by the Ishikawa family in Higashi Asakawa-cho, Hachioji City, Tokyo, since 1720. (Fig.1)
2.Purpose of the study
Inspired by the precipitation threshold of diarypresented by Sho at the Japan Geoscience Union in 2022, we will verify our original restoration method to restore the precipitation occurrence rate (actual value) by using approximation equations between values such asprecipitation occurrence rate of diary, detailed rate of diary or precipitation occurrence rate (0.0 mm≦) of weather station.
3.Devising our school's original restoration method
Weather was adopted closer to the current JMA's four categories of occurrence, with priority given to the worse weather: snow, rain, cloudy, and clear.
4.Detail rate, Precipitation thresholds, and Data processing
The detail rate is a unique mathematical function created by Dr. Sho at Nagoya Institute of Technology.
Percentage of days with Multiple types of weather conditions, Descriptions of temporal changes, and Descriptions of the scale of precipitation As the detail rate increases, it is believed that the rate of precipitation occurrence will increase as the rate of overlooking decreases.The number of days that the daily precipitation at the weather station is equal to or greater than the threshold shall be determined to coincide with the number of days of precipitation in the diary. The rate of detail in the Ishikawa diary is higher than in previous studies (Fig. 2).
5.Data and Discussion
Data1 and Discussion:Consideration of distance between Tokyo Meteorological Observatory and Hachioji
Data1 and Discussion: Distance between Tokyo Meteorological Observatory and Hachioji.
The distance between Hachioji City and Toranomon, is about 39 km in a straight line. The correlation coefficient between the Tokyo Meteorological Observatory's precipitation occurrence rate and the diary's precipitation occurrence rate is 0.85, indicating a strong correlation(Fig.3).
Data2 and Discussion: Procedure for precipitation occurrence rate by approximate equation
Taking a hint from the restoration of precipitation occurrence rate using precipitation threshold published by Sho, We examined an original restoration method to restore the precipitation occurrence rate (0.0 mm≦) of the meteorological observatory using an approximation formula between values obtained from old documents and other sources. The procedure is as shown in Table.1.
The precipitation threshold of the diary for the period
1720-1875 is a power-law approximation equation between the detail rate and the precipitation threshold of the diary (Fig. 4) y=0.5356x-0.993
The relationship between the precipitation threshold of the weather station and the precipitation occurrence rate of the weather station from 1876 to1912 can be approximated by the logarithmic approximation equation (Fig. 5)y=-1561ln(x)+0.6153
A power-law approximation of the precipitation threshold of the weather station for the period 1720-1875 with the precipitation threshold of the diary (Fig. 6)y=1.3392x0.6484 The logarithmic approximation of the weather station precipitation occurrence rate for the period 1720-1875 in
to the weather station precipitation threshold (Fig. 7)
y = -0.147ln(x) + 0.6297
Data3 and Discussion: Comparison of precipitation occurrence rate restoration values (Fig. 8-10)
When restored using multiple regression analysis with Diary precipitation occurrence ratex1and detail ratex2 as explanatory variables and Weather station precipitation occurrence rate y as the objective variable, the coefficient of determination was 0.81. The original restoration using approximate equations is similar in trend to multiple regression analysis.
6.Future Prospects
We will search for ancient documents written in periods that include actual measurements to confirm the accuracy of our original restoration method and to consider new restoration methods for precipitation occurrence rates.