[P-EM10] Space Weather and Space Climate

[PEM10-08] Implementation of a physics-based flare prediction model κ-scheme to operational space weather forecasting in NICT

*Yumi Bamba¹, Daikou Shiota¹, Kanya Kusano² (1.National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, 2.Institute for Space-Eearth Environmental Research, Nagoya University)

Keywords:Space weather forecast, Flare prediction

It is still difficult to alert the incidence of a large flare in advance, although we at NICT forecast the largest magnitude of solar flares for the following 24 hours. We are thus working on the development of a flare-alert system that predicts and alerts a large flare at least several hours prior to its onset. Our flare-alert system is based on a physics-based flare prediction method, which was proposed by Kusano et al. 2020 and is named ''kappa-scheme''. We adjusted parameters in the kappa-scheme for space weather operation and automated the codes of the scheme. The kappa-scheme was partially used in NICT space weather forecast from April 2024 and was fully implemented from the end of October 2024. We have already succeeded in forecasting some X-class flares by utilizing the kappa-scheme. In the presentation, we report how the kappa-scheme works well in NICT space weather forecasting and the progress of the flare-alert system development in NICT.