Citizen science and Bayes inference of auroral oval evolution during super storms

Ryuho Kataoka; Shin ya Nakano

Presentation information

[E] Oral

P (Space and Planetary Sciences ) » P-EM Solar-Terrestrial Sciences, Space Electromagnetism & Space Environment

[P-EM10] Space Weather and Space Climate

Tue. May 27, 2025 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM 302 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Ryuho Kataoka(National Institute of Polar Research), Antti Pulkkinen(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), Mary Aronne(NASA GSFC/CUA), Yumi Bamba(National Institute of Information and Communications Technology), Chairperson:Yumi Bamba(National Institute of Information and Communications Technology), Mary Aronne(NASA GSFC/CUA)

4:30 PM - 4:45 PM

[PEM10-23] Citizen science and Bayes inference of auroral oval evolution during super storms

*Ryuho Kataoka¹, Shin ya Nakano² (1.National Institute of Polar Research, 2.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:citizen science, aurora, magnetic storm

Large magnetic storms occurred on May 11 and October 10, 2024, and red auroras were photographed at multiple points over a wide region of Japan. We apply a Bayesian analysis to estimate the time variation of the most probable height and latitude of the red aurora based on the citizen science dataset, in combination with the POES/MetOp satellite datasets of electron precipitation boundary. We find that the top height of red aurora extended to >1000 km and ~850 km for May 11 and October 10 storms, respectively. The red auroras' latitudinal motions are correlated to the storm phase development. The ultra-high altitude of the red aurora can be evidence of strong atmospheric heating at subauroral latitude during super storms.