Citizen science and Bayes inference of auroral oval evolution during super storms

片岡 龍峰; 中野 慎也

講演情報

[E] 口頭発表

セッション記号 P (宇宙惑星科学) » P-EM 太陽地球系科学・宇宙電磁気学・宇宙環境

[P-EM10] Space Weather and Space Climate

2025年5月27日(火) 15:30 〜 17:00 302 (幕張メッセ国際会議場)

コンビーナ:片岡龍峰(国立極地研究所)、Pulkkinen Antti(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)、Aronne Mary(NASA GSFC/CUA)、伴場由美(国立研究開発法人　情報通信研究機構)、座長:伴場由美(国立研究開発法人　情報通信研究機構)、Mary Aronne(NASA GSFC/CUA)

16:30 〜 16:45

[PEM10-23] Citizen science and Bayes inference of auroral oval evolution during super storms

*片岡龍峰¹、中野慎也² (1.国立極地研究所、2.統計数理研究所)

キーワード：市民科学、オーロラ、磁気嵐

Large magnetic storms occurred on May 11 and October 10, 2024, and red auroras were photographed at multiple points over a wide region of Japan. We apply a Bayesian analysis to estimate the time variation of the most probable height and latitude of the red aurora based on the citizen science dataset, in combination with the POES/MetOp satellite datasets of electron precipitation boundary. We find that the top height of red aurora extended to >1000 km and ~850 km for May 11 and October 10 storms, respectively. The red auroras' latitudinal motions are correlated to the storm phase development. The ultra-high altitude of the red aurora can be evidence of strong atmospheric heating at subauroral latitude during super storms.