17:15 〜 19:15
[PEM10-P01] Characteristics of Magnetic Field Evolution and Onset Process of Successive X-class Flares in May 2024
キーワード：太陽フレア、太陽活動領域、磁場、予測
Solar active regions (ARs) 13663 and 13664 produced numerous solar flares, including 17 X-class that occurred in two weeks from May 3 to 16. Especially, the AR13664 is the first active region in GOES observation history to produced 7 X-class flares within 72 hours. It is reported that geomagnetic or ionospheric disturbances caused by the successive solar eruptions and affected infrastructures or human activities, such as, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), HF communications, and air traffic operations.
The objective of the study is to reveal why the ARs 13663 and 13664 produced successive large solar flares? Especially, what was a difference between the ARs 13663 and 13664, both are flare-rich, but latter is more? To answer these questions, we investigated onset process of the major flares produced by the ARs by implemented a physics-based flare prediction scheme, named κ-scheme, which we are attempting to implement to space weather forecast operation in NICT. We investigated temporal and spatial evolution of 3D structure of the magnetic field in the ARs by the non-linear force-free field modeling. We also investigated the onset process and trigger of the major flares in the ARs by analyzing solar observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We discuss the onset process of the successive X-class flares and how can we predict such flares, by comparing the result from the κ-scheme and observational data analysis.
The objective of the study is to reveal why the ARs 13663 and 13664 produced successive large solar flares? Especially, what was a difference between the ARs 13663 and 13664, both are flare-rich, but latter is more? To answer these questions, we investigated onset process of the major flares produced by the ARs by implemented a physics-based flare prediction scheme, named κ-scheme, which we are attempting to implement to space weather forecast operation in NICT. We investigated temporal and spatial evolution of 3D structure of the magnetic field in the ARs by the non-linear force-free field modeling. We also investigated the onset process and trigger of the major flares in the ARs by analyzing solar observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We discuss the onset process of the successive X-class flares and how can we predict such flares, by comparing the result from the κ-scheme and observational data analysis.