Information-theory-based quantification of earthquake predictability and the predictive capacity of the ETAS model

Jiancang Zhuang

Presentation information

[E] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS06] New trends in data acquisition, analysis and interpretation of seismicity

Fri. May 30, 2025 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 301A (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Bogdan Enescu(Department of Geophysics, Kyoto University), Francesco Grigoli(University of Pisa), Yosuke Aoki(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Takahiko Uchide(Research Institute of Earthquake and Volcano Geology, Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)), Chairperson:Bogdan Enescu(Department of Geophysics, Kyoto University), Francesco Grigoli(University of Pisa), Yosuke Aoki(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Takahiko Uchide(Research Institute of Earthquake and Volcano Geology, Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST))

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM

[SSS06-06] Information-theory-based quantification of earthquake predictability and the predictive capacity of the ETAS model

*Jiancang Zhuang¹ (1.Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:earthquake forecast, earthquake predictability, ETAS, statistical seismology

In earthquake forecasting, there is a significant gap between complete randomness and complete deterministicity. This presentation begins by discussing how to quantify predictability from an information-theoretic perspective. In particular, the difference in system entropy between a forecasting model and the model of complete randomness is used as a standard measure of predictive capacity. The presentation then examines the predictive capacity of the ETAS model and concludes with an overview of the current state of earthquake predictability, discussing potential improvements to existing earthquake forecasting models.