Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2025

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[J] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS12] Statistical seismology and underlying physical processes

Wed. May 28, 2025 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM Convention Hall (CH-B) (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Keita Chiba(Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction), Nana Yoshimitsu(Kyoto University), Chairperson:Takao Kumazawa(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Kei Katsumata(Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Hokkaido University)

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[SSS12-05] Aftershock activity in the southern part off the coast of Hyuga-nada

*Takao Kumazawa1, Yosihiko Ogata1 (1.Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:off the coast of Hyuga-nada, aftershock pattern, point-process model

Two large earthquakes occurred in the southern part of the Hyuga-Nada offshore between last year and the beginning of this year, with a magnitude of 7.1 on August 8, 2024 and a magnitude of 6.6 on January 13, 2025. These mainshock and aftershock activities, together with the time series of similar earthquake activity in the same area in 1996 (M6.9 on October 19 and M6.7 on December 3), were analyzed using HIST-PPM to estimate the space-time point density distribution, as well as various point-process models of Omori-Utsu, ETAS, and non-stationary ETAS.