[S-VC30] International Volcanology

[SVC30-01] How can we forecast eruptions from caldera systems? A case study from Taupō, New Zealand

★Invited Papers

*Finnigan Illsley-Kemp¹、Simon Barker¹、Eleanor Mestel¹、Colin Wilson¹ (1.Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

キーワード：caldera, volcano, New Zealand, eruption

Forecasting the likelihood of volcanic eruptions is always challenging but it is particularly difficult at caldera systems. Often these volcanoes have had no observed eruptions, and the geological record shows that they can produce a large range of eruption sizes, from lava domes to supereruptions. In 2022 Taupō caldera, New Zealand, entered a period of unrest which featured heightened seismicity and ground deformation. This prompted Taupō’s Volcanic Alert Level to be raised for the first time in its history. Along with our colleagues in the NZ volcano science community, it was our responsibility to provide science advice on the likelihood of a range of eruption scenarios. This revealed fundamental gaps in our knowledge of how these systems operate in the lead up to eruption, even for a comparatively well-studied volcano like Taupō. In this talk I will discuss these knowledge gaps, draw comparisons to caldera systems in Japan, and suggest future avenues for research in this critical area.