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[SVC31-04] Utilization of evacuation simulation in disaster prevention planning for volcanic disasters
Keywords:volcanic disasters, disaster prevention plans, evacuation plans, evacuation simulation, multi-agent simulation, education for disaster prevention
1. Introduction
In the effective evacuation plan in the volcanic disaster, quantitative verification should be carried out for the evaluation of the time line, etc.. Evacuation simulation is effective as a means of assisting this. The purpose of this study is to carry out model verification of evacuation behavior using evacuation simulation, and to use it for problem finding of evacuation plan and renewal of operation method.
2. Multi-agent simulation
In this study, a multi-agent model was adopted. In this model, multiple agents with individual decision algorithms are set to construct a crowd, and the interactions of each agent are calculated. In this examination, agent conditions such as initial position and speed, environment and action conditions such as destination and walking region, obstacle, relay point, speed change region, etc. were set, and community behavior was reproduced. As a simulator, SimTread was used. This software operates as an extension of CAD software Vectorworks and visualizes the operation on CAD.
3. Validation using Yakedake (Kamikouchi) as a model
In order to evaluate the applicability of the program, an examination was carried out using Yakedake volcano (Kamikouchi) as a model case in which operation results are easy to be evaluated. The purpose of this paper is to reproduce the evacuation behavior of climbers and tourists in Kamikouchi on the condition that the range of eruption is expanded in 3case 2 of the volcanic alert level of Yakedake volcano, and to examine problem arrangement and problem solving method of the evacuation plan from the result. Conditions such as the agent's initial position, movement speed, and evacuation routes caused large differences in crowd movements. It was possible to confirm how much the various factors affected the timeline of the evacuation. Other problems in the disaster prevention planning can also be extracted through the examination result. For example, effective evacuation guidance methods, studies on the development of facilities for securing evacuation routes, and measures for the survival of target districts in the event of evacuation difficulties are considered.
4. Validation using Ontake Volcano as a model
In order to use a multi-agent model as a planning support tool for evacuation planning and evacuation assurance planning, it is necessary to guarantee that the operation results can correctly reproduce the actual evacuation behavior. This time, Ontake volcanic eruption in 2014 was treated as a subject of the simulation. In order to set various conditions necessary for the operation, information on the situation at the time of disaster occurrence was collected for the governor, mountain guide and climber of each mountainous shed which carried out evacuation guidance and support. The simulation was generally well operated, and the number of passes, passage time, flow coefficient, total elapsed time, etc. at a specific point on the evacuation route were able to reproduce the situation at the time of actual disaster. It can be used for detailed examination of disaster prevention and evacuation plans by giving various if conditions on the basis of these results.
5. Development of utilization methods
Utilizing evacuation simulation, it is effective for objectification of evacuation plan timeline and wide area evacuation plan under various volcanic hazard conditions, because quantitative condition setting on evacuation action can be done. It can also be expected to be applied to disaster prevention education. In the field of the disaster prevention education, the moving image tool using the simulation result can be an effective learning material. In the future, the examination is also planned to advance on the presentation method of the operation result using the projection mapping.
In the effective evacuation plan in the volcanic disaster, quantitative verification should be carried out for the evaluation of the time line, etc.. Evacuation simulation is effective as a means of assisting this. The purpose of this study is to carry out model verification of evacuation behavior using evacuation simulation, and to use it for problem finding of evacuation plan and renewal of operation method.
2. Multi-agent simulation
In this study, a multi-agent model was adopted. In this model, multiple agents with individual decision algorithms are set to construct a crowd, and the interactions of each agent are calculated. In this examination, agent conditions such as initial position and speed, environment and action conditions such as destination and walking region, obstacle, relay point, speed change region, etc. were set, and community behavior was reproduced. As a simulator, SimTread was used. This software operates as an extension of CAD software Vectorworks and visualizes the operation on CAD.
3. Validation using Yakedake (Kamikouchi) as a model
In order to evaluate the applicability of the program, an examination was carried out using Yakedake volcano (Kamikouchi) as a model case in which operation results are easy to be evaluated. The purpose of this paper is to reproduce the evacuation behavior of climbers and tourists in Kamikouchi on the condition that the range of eruption is expanded in 3case 2 of the volcanic alert level of Yakedake volcano, and to examine problem arrangement and problem solving method of the evacuation plan from the result. Conditions such as the agent's initial position, movement speed, and evacuation routes caused large differences in crowd movements. It was possible to confirm how much the various factors affected the timeline of the evacuation. Other problems in the disaster prevention planning can also be extracted through the examination result. For example, effective evacuation guidance methods, studies on the development of facilities for securing evacuation routes, and measures for the survival of target districts in the event of evacuation difficulties are considered.
4. Validation using Ontake Volcano as a model
In order to use a multi-agent model as a planning support tool for evacuation planning and evacuation assurance planning, it is necessary to guarantee that the operation results can correctly reproduce the actual evacuation behavior. This time, Ontake volcanic eruption in 2014 was treated as a subject of the simulation. In order to set various conditions necessary for the operation, information on the situation at the time of disaster occurrence was collected for the governor, mountain guide and climber of each mountainous shed which carried out evacuation guidance and support. The simulation was generally well operated, and the number of passes, passage time, flow coefficient, total elapsed time, etc. at a specific point on the evacuation route were able to reproduce the situation at the time of actual disaster. It can be used for detailed examination of disaster prevention and evacuation plans by giving various if conditions on the basis of these results.
5. Development of utilization methods
Utilizing evacuation simulation, it is effective for objectification of evacuation plan timeline and wide area evacuation plan under various volcanic hazard conditions, because quantitative condition setting on evacuation action can be done. It can also be expected to be applied to disaster prevention education. In the field of the disaster prevention education, the moving image tool using the simulation result can be an effective learning material. In the future, the examination is also planned to advance on the presentation method of the operation result using the projection mapping.