[U-05] Climate change and the challenges of using renewable energy

[U05-P01] Evaluation of the Influence of Climate Change on Solar Power Potential in Japan

*Shobayashi Narin¹, KOJI DAIRAKU¹ (1.University of tsukuba)

Keywords:Photovoltaic Power Generation, Renewable Energy, Climate Change, Global Climate Model

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, set a global target of limiting the rise in temperature to 2°C, and also decided to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. In response to this target, the importance of renewable energy, which does not use fossil fuels, is increasing. In particular, there is a lot of attention being paid to solar power, which accounts for the largest proportion of renewable energy targets and is also easy for individuals to install. However, since the amount of electricity generated by solar power is heavily dependent on climatic conditions, it has been pointed out that it could be a vulnerable energy source to climate change.

We therefore combined multiple global climate models that predict future climates with solar power generation potential, which quantifies the suitability of a location for power generation based on the climate conditions at the site where the panels are installed, to evaluate the impact of climate change on solar power generation potential. As a result, it was predicted that the solar power generation potential in Japan would increase by a maximum of 6.24% and a minimum of 0.26% by the end of the century compared to the present. This is thought to be due to the positive impact of future increases in solar radiation outweighing the negative impact of rising temperatures associated with global warming.

In the future, it will be necessary to conduct analyses using multiple downscaling and bias correction methods, as well as different global climate models and emission scenarios, and to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty.