[A-AS11] 気象の予測可能性から制御可能性へ

2026年5月29日(金) 13:45 〜 15:15 101 (幕張メッセ国際会議場)

座長:三好建正(理化学研究所)、中澤哲夫(科学技術振興機構)、高玉孝平(科学技術振興機構)

Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.

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13:45 〜 14:00

[AAS11-01] Harnessing the Butterfly Effect: A Duality-Based Framework for the Efficient Control of Extreme Weather

*三好建正¹ (1. 理化学研究所)

14:00 〜 14:15

[AAS11-02] Data-driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability

*澤田洋平¹、南出将志¹、Yan Yuyue^1,2、橋本和宗²、Le Duc¹ (1. 東京大学、2. 大阪大学)

14:15 〜 14:30

[AAS11-03] アンサンブル感度に基づく制御位置の最適化

*大瀧晴登¹、黒澤賢太²、岡崎淳史^2,3 (1. 千葉大学　融合理工学府　リモートセンシングコース、2. 千葉大学　環境リモートセンシング研究センター、3. 千葉大学　国際高等研究基幹)

14:30 〜 14:45

[AAS11-04] Objective Detection of Scenarios Prior to Stationary Heavy-rain Events

*Oettli Pascal¹, Shunji Kotsuki^2,1,3 (1. Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 2. Institute for Advanced Academic Research, Chiba University, 3. Research Institute of Disaster Medicine, Chiba University)

14:45 〜 15:00

[AAS11-05] Real-time heavy rainfall forecasting with 30-second dual Multi-Parameter Phased Array Weather Radar assimilation during Osaka Expo 2025

*James David Taylor^1,2, Shigenori Otsuka^1,2, Arata Amemiya^1,2, Yuta Tarumi^1,2, Takemasa Miyoshi^1,2, Shinsuke Satoh³, Seiji Kawamura³, Hiroshi Hanado³, Yoshiyuki Kawatani³, Shin-ichi Maeda⁴, Juntaro Tamura⁴, Yasunori Kudo⁴ (1. RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, 2. RIKEN Center for Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences, Kobe, Japan, 3. National Institute for Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan, 4. Preferred Networks, Tokyo, Japan)

15:00 〜 15:15

[AAS11-06] Influence of Arctic sea ice-atmosphere system on subseasonal prediction of Ural blockings

*Guokun Dai¹ (1. Fudan University)

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