[A-AS11] 気象の予測可能性から制御可能性へ

2026年5月29日(金) 15:30 〜 17:00 101 (幕張メッセ国際会議場)

座長:三好建正(理化学研究所)、中澤哲夫(科学技術振興機構)、高玉孝平(科学技術振興機構)

Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.

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15:30 〜 15:45

[AAS11-07] Multispecies weather commons: a conceptual basis for assessing interspecies weather modification interactions

*Christoph Rupprecht^1,2, Tsuyoshi Hatori¹, Norie Tamura^2,6, Kazuhiko Ota^3,2, Steven McGreevy^5,2, Layna Droz^4,2, Lihua Cui^7,2, Yoshinori Tokuoka¹, Keiji Konagaya¹, Naomi Shimpo⁴ (1. Ehime University, 2. Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 3. Nanzan University, 4. Tokyo University, 5. University of Twente, 6. Graduate School of Project Design, 7. Tokyo Metropolitan Research Institute for Environmental Protection)

15:45 〜 16:00

[AAS11-08] A Global Overview of Weather Modification Activities (2020–2025): Legal and Social Perspectives

*阿部未来¹、笹岡愛美¹ (1. 横浜国立大学)

16:00 〜 16:15

[AAS11-09] From Predictability to Controllability in Japanese Convective Downpours: Aerosol-Sensitivity Experiments with the Super-Droplet Method

*Manhal Alhilali ¹, Yutaro Nirasawa², Shin-ichiro Shima¹, Seiya Nishizawa³, Wojciech W. Grabowski⁴ (1. U-Hyogo, 2. UTokyo, 3. R-CCS, 4. NCAR)

16:15 〜 16:30

[AAS11-10] Aircraft Observations of Supercooled Water Droplets in Typhoon Halong (2025)

*筆保弘徳¹、坪木和久^2,1、金田幸恵²、加藤雅也²、平野創一朗³、伊藤耕介^3,1、辻野智紀⁴ (1. 横浜国立大学、2. 名古屋大学、3. 京都大学、4. 気象庁)

16:30 〜 16:45

[AAS11-11] Sensitivity of Typhoon Response to Artificial Cold Pool Forcing at Different Stages of Development

*Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee¹, Masaki Satoh^1,2 (1. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 2. TRC, National University of Yokohama)

16:45 〜 17:00

[AAS11-12] AMAGOI: Advancing Weather Modification to Mitigate Extreme Rainfall Disasters

*小槻峻司¹ (1. 千葉大学　環境リモートセンシング研究センター)

セッション情報