Toward Intermediate-term Large Earthquake Forecasting: Probability Gains from Slow Slip Events, Repeating Earthquakes, and Seismic Quiescence

Yosihiko Ogata

Presentation information

[E] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-CG Complex & General

[S-CG56] Science of Slow and Fast Earthquakes

Wed. May 27, 2026 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM Convention Hall (CH-B) (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

Chairperson:Zhang Zhuoran(Michigan State University), Maubant Louise(Earthquake Research Institute, The university of Tokyo)

11:30 AM - 11:45 AM

[SCG56-40] Toward Intermediate-term Large Earthquake Forecasting: Probability Gains from Slow Slip Events, Repeating Earthquakes, and Seismic Quiescence

*Yosihiko Ogata¹ (1. Research Organization of Information and Systems, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:Multi-element probability forecasting, Intermediate-term forecasting, Hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) model, Background rate, Spatio-temporal probability gain, Japan Trench Subduction Zone