S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology
[S-SS09] [EE] Rethinking PSHA
Wed. May 24, 2017 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall HALL7)
convener:Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Ken Xiansheng Hao(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster(NIED)), Kuo-Fong Ma(Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)
The research teams of the national seismic hazard models (NSHM) of Japan, New Zealand, and Taiwan, joined by the Global Earthquake Model foundation, have been collaborating in recent years to further the developments of the NSHMs in each region. One recent outcome from this collaboration has been to identify some of the most important research topics necessary for advancing PSHA and NSHMs in each of the regions. In discussing these research priorities, five dominant themes emerged from: 1) subduction zone hazard is poorly understood but is likely the largest uncertainty and hazard for each region and thus requires significant research; 2) a focus on quantifying and including epistemic uncertainty is necessary, including uncertainty in fault and earthquake catalogue source models (and uncertainty due to data quality issues), as well as those in ground motion prediction; 3) ground motion simulations are becoming increasingly relevant for the NSHMs and require NSHM specific focus; 4) understanding how to include earthquake clustering and triggering will improve hazard forecasts; and 5) a focus on testing of hazard and model components will lead to improved NSHMs. In this session, we invite contributions about research topics particularly related to these themes or to seismic hazard analysis in general.