JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

Presentation information

[EE] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS06] [EE] Advances in Tropical Cyclone Research: Past, Present, and Future

Sat. May 20, 2017 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM 301B (International Conference Hall 3F)

convener:Masuo Nakano(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Akiyoshi Wada(Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute), Sachie Kanada(Nagoya University), Kosuke Ito(University of the Ryukyus), Chairperson:Kosuke Ito(University of Ryukyus), Chairperson:Sachie Kanada(Nagoya University)

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM

[AAS06-03] The Development of the Ensemble Based Typhoon Track Forecast Technique

Ling-Feng Hsiao1, *CHIN-CHENG TSAI1, Jia-Chyi Liou1, Ming-En Hsieh1, Der-Song Chen2, Delia Yen-Chu Chen1, Chou-Chun Chiang1, Yu-Chun Chen1, Tien-Chiang Yeh2 (1.Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei, Taiwan, 2. Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan)

The purpose of this study is effective in improving the ensemble technique for typhoon track forecasts using multi-model ensembles. The models from global (ECMWF, NCEP) and regional ensembles (CWB EPS, TTFRI EPS) were applied to develop the ensemble based technique. A selective ensemble technique is based on the 12-h typhoon track distance from the CWB (Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau) best-track for 2014-2015. The results show that the superior performance of ensemble based technique to all ensemble means by reducing 12.1%, 6%, 4.1% track errors of 24-, 48- and 72-h forecast, respectively. We also applied this technique for tropical cyclones forecast over the Western North Pacific Ocean in 2016 . The detailed analyses on ensemble technique and individual ensemble models will be presented in the conference.