JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

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[EE] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS08] [EE] Towards integrated understandings of cloud and precipitation processes

Tue. May 23, 2017 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM A09 (Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall)

convener:Kentaroh Suzuki(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Yukari Takayabu(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Nagio Hirota(University of Tokyo), Tomoki Miyakawa(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo), Chairperson:Kentaroh Suzuki(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo)

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM

[AAS08-01] Tightening of Hadley Ascent and Tropical High Cloud Region Key to Precipitation Change in a Warmer Climate

★Invited papers

*Hui Su1, Jonathan H. Jiang1, J. David Neelin2, T. Janice Shen1, Chengxing Zhai1, Qing Yue1, Zhien Wang3, Lei Huang4, Yong-Sang Choi5, Graeme Stephens1, Yuk L. Yung6 (1.Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 2.University of California, Los Angeles, 3.University of Wyoming, 4.Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, UCLA, 5.Ewha Womans University, 6.California Institute of Technology)

Keywords:hydrological sensitivity, high cloud shrinkage, tightening of Hadley ascent

The changes of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability are predominantly controlled by the changes of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that the tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation is a key process coupled to the decrease of tropical-mean high cloud fraction when the surface warms. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the inter-model spread in the rates of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation change per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most CMIP5 models underestimate the rates of interannual OLR and precipitation increase with surface temperature, consistent with the muted high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ~20 models analyzed in this study.