[A-CG53] [JJ] Adaptation for climate change and social implementation

[ACG53-06] Development of a simple method to use massive climate projection datasets for impact assessments: an application to the climate change signals related to tourism

*Satoshi Watanabe¹, Nobuyuki Utsumi², Masanori Take³, Akiko Iida¹ (1.School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, 2.Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 3.Art and design, University of Tsukuba)

Keywords:Climate Change, Massive climate projection dataset, Tourism, Yaeyama Islands

A Simple method to use massive climate projection datasets is developed. The simplicity of the method enables application to various impact assessment studies. In this new method, rather than projecting directly the variables of interest, we project the change of probability. This probabilistic approach enables simple assessments for issues associated with climate change. The trends in change are evaluated without considering the detailed relationship between climate and a target of assessment. The applicability of the method developed is demonstrated for the climate change signals related to tourism in Yaeyama islands, Okinawa, Japan. For this assessment, we use the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and a questionnaire survey conducted by local governments. The result indicates that the occurrence of severe events like heavy precipitation or strong wind will decrease in summer, and the occurrence of fine day, which most tourist prefer, will increase in winter. This result can be useful for the impact assessment of climate change. The example of application shows that the developed method can effectively project the future main changes and uncertainty for the target of assessment considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations.