JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

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[EE] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-OS Ocean Sciences & Ocean Environment

[A-OS17] [EE] Climate variations in the Atlantic Ocean and their representation in climate models

Wed. May 24, 2017 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM 303 (International Conference Hall 3F)

convener:Ingo Richter(JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Noel S Keenlyside(Geophysical Institute Bergen), Thomas Spengler(University of Bergen), Carlos R Mechoso(University of California Los Angeles), Chairperson:Ingo Richter(JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Chairperson:Carlos Mechoso(University of California Los Angeles)

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM

[AOS17-03] Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and its link with the Guinea Dome

*Takeshi Doi1, Andrea Storto2, Ingo Richter1, Swadhin K. Behera1, Toshio Yamagata1 (1.JAMSTEC, 2.CMCC)

Keywords:Atlantic Meridonal Mode, Seasonal prediction, Guinea Dome

Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Mode is investigated by use of the SINTEX-F climate model from the viewpoint of the preconditioning role of the Guinea Dome. The 2009 strong negative event is successfully predicted a few months ahead when the model is initialized using a three-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation (3DVAR) method. However, nudging the sea surface temperature (SST) only for the initialization fails to predict the event. It is shown that the mixed-layer depth in the Guinea Dome region is unrealistically deep in the latter. Denying even one ocean mooring array data at 12ºN, 23ºW in the 3DVAR initialization clearly demonstrates that monitoring the Guinea Dome is very important for predicting the Atlantic Meridional Mode.