[AAS06-P11] How well do global climate models simulate the variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?
Keywords:Simulations, tropical cyclones, variability, ENSO, global climate models
Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño, namely eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño, and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of models captures the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as shown in observations, which may be due to the bias of the circulations in models in response to the westward shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño. In addition, a general unrealistic scene exists in model simulations with the underestimated intensities of the convection anomaly over the maritime continent in the western tropical Pacific during each ENSO phase of whatever warm or cold, which may be the important source of biases in simulating WNP TC associated with the ENSO events.