JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

Presentation information

[EE] Poster

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG45] [EE] Multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Indo-Pacific region

Sat. May 20, 2017 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall HALL7)

[ACG45-P10] Large ensemble high-resolution climate simulations – Application to Event Attribution study

*Yukiko Imada1, Shuhei Maeda1, Masahiro Watanabe2, Hideo Shiogama3, Ryo Mizuta1, Masayoshi Ishii1, Masahide Kimoto2 (1.Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2.Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, 3.National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Keywords:Large ensemble climate simulation, AGCM, Extreme event, Heatwaves, Pacific decadal variability, Global warming

Recently, an unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60 km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling with a 20 km regional climate model have been released in Japan (the “Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change [d4PDF]”) to assess probabilistic change in localized severe events that have large uncertainty from internal variability. Internal variability includes decadal variations in the ocean, inter-annual variability in the extratropical atmosphere, intra-seasonal variation in the tropics, and so on. Two sets of ensemble for past climate with and without historical trends associated with the anthropogenic effect, respectively, and an ensemble for 4 K warmer future climate are simulated more than 5000 years in d4PDF. Here, we will introduce our recent works using large ensemble simulations focusing on how much the inter-annual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean contributed to increased occurrence of heatwaves around the globe when compared to anthropogenic global warming.