JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

講演情報

[EE]Eveningポスター発表

セッション記号 M (領域外・複数領域) » M-GI 地球科学一般・情報地球科学

[M-GI28] [EE] Data assimilation: A fundamental approach in geosciences

2017年5月22日(月) 17:15 〜 18:30 ポスター会場 (国際展示場 7ホール)

[MGI28-P01] Data assimilation for optimal estimation of frictional parameters and prediction of afterslip in the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake

*加納 将行1宮崎 真一2石川 洋一3伊藤 耕介4平原 和朗2 (1.東京大学地震研究所、2.京都大学理学研究科、3.海洋研究開発機構、4.琉球大学理学部)

キーワード:Data assimilation, Afterslip, Frictional parameters, GNSS

A wide variety of fault slips at plate subduction zones are considered to reflect the spatial heterogeneities of frictional parameters. Thus, it is important to estimate the frictional parameters from geophysical observations. In addition, these estimated frictional parameters contribute to compute a realistic spatio-temporal evolution of fault slips. For this purpose, we have developed a technique to optimize frictional parameters and to predict a spatio-temporal evolution of slip based on an adjoint data assimilation method [Kano et al. 2010; 2013] and applied to the afterslip data in the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake [Kano et al. 2015]. In this presentation, we review these studies, and discuss the problems and the future plan for challenges of earthquake forecasting.