JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

Presentation information

[EE] Poster

H (Human Geosciences) » H-CG Complex & General

[H-CG27] [EE] Coupled Human-Water Dynamics across Scales: Observations, Understanding, Modeling, and Management

Tue. May 23, 2017 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall HALL7)

convener:Taikan Oki(Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo), Murugesu Sivapalan(University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign), Giuliano Di Baldassarre(Uppsala University)

[HCG27-P09] Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Cooling Water: Economic Evaluations for the Thermal Electricity Sector

*ZHOU Qian1, Naota Hanasaki1, Jun’ya TAKAKURA1, Shinichiro FUJIMORI1, Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI1, Yasuaki HIJIOKA 1 (1.National Institute of Environmental Studies)

Keywords:climate change, cooling water shortage, thermometric sector, socio-economic impact, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

Due to global warming, it is concerned that cooling water for thermoelectric generation would be running short more frequently in many places of the world. We used a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the socio-economic impact of a hypothetical shock of capital productivity, which represents shortage of cooling water on thermal power generation plants. The results showed that the magnitude of electricity generation change and subsequent economic indicators change due to 1% capital productivity reduction were varied by region. The mean electricity generation loss was largest in Southeast Asia and smallest in North Africa when an identical shock was given to all regions throughout the simulation period. Considerable regional differences in GDP and electricity price were attributed to not only the capital productivity, but also the amount of capital in thermoelectric sector and its contribution for GDP. Additionally, thermoelectric sector shock propagates into the global economy. These finding demonstrate the significance in quantifying the economic consequence of cooling water shortage.