9:45 AM - 10:00 AM
[HRE18-04] Detection of forecast busts of regional surface solar radiation using ensemble spread with multi numerical weather prediction centers
Keywords:Ensemble forecast, Forecast busts, TIGGE, Surface solar radiation
Root mean square error for the ensemble mean of MCGE (EMg) and 5km regional forecast of JMA-MSM are 27.6 and 28.6 Wm−2 for the one-day ahead forecast, respectively. The forecast skill of the EMg was found to be comparable with that of the JMA-MSM. In October 2015, the correlation between the absolute value of forecast error coefficient (|Fc|) on the operational regional forecast and LNESg for the one-, three-, and five-day ahead forecasts are 0.68, 0.63, and 0.45, respectively (see Figure). The correlation for one- and six-day ahead forecast was found to have statistical significance at ten and seven months, respectively. The LNESg can be, therefore, a valuable predictor for detection of forecast busts in the regional forecast.