09:45 〜 10:00
[HRE18-04] 複数の予報機関のアンサンブルスプレッドを利用した日射量予測の大外しの予見可能性
キーワード：アンサンブル予測、予測の大外し、TIGGE、地表面日射量
Energy management using weather forecast of numerical weather prediction (NWP) center is exposed to blackout risks and production of excessive surplus power owing to the large forecast errors (forecast busts) of NWP models. The detection of forecast busts is important for stable electricity provisions. Dispersion of ensemble forecast (ensemble spread: ES) relate to forecast skill. Multi-center grand ensemble (MCGE) has higher forecast skill than single-NWP center ensemble forecast. It is considered that the ES and ES of MCGE (ESg) can be used as the predictor of the forecast busts. We investigate the detectability of forecast busts on operational regional forecast predicted by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA-MSM) using lognormal ES (LNES) and ES of MCGE (LNESg) in Kanto Plain, Japan. One- to six-day ahead global forecast at four leading NWP centers (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: ECMWF, Japan Meteorological Agency: JMA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction: NCEP, and Met Office, UKMO) were used to detect of daily surface solar radiation of regional forecast in 2015.
Root mean square error for the ensemble mean of MCGE (EMg) and 5km regional forecast of JMA-MSM are 27.6 and 28.6 Wm−2 for the one-day ahead forecast, respectively. The forecast skill of the EMg was found to be comparable with that of the JMA-MSM. In October 2015, the correlation between the absolute value of forecast error coefficient (|Fc|) on the operational regional forecast and LNESg for the one-, three-, and five-day ahead forecasts are 0.68, 0.63, and 0.45, respectively (see Figure). The correlation for one- and six-day ahead forecast was found to have statistical significance at ten and seven months, respectively. The LNESg can be, therefore, a valuable predictor for detection of forecast busts in the regional forecast.
Root mean square error for the ensemble mean of MCGE (EMg) and 5km regional forecast of JMA-MSM are 27.6 and 28.6 Wm−2 for the one-day ahead forecast, respectively. The forecast skill of the EMg was found to be comparable with that of the JMA-MSM. In October 2015, the correlation between the absolute value of forecast error coefficient (|Fc|) on the operational regional forecast and LNESg for the one-, three-, and five-day ahead forecasts are 0.68, 0.63, and 0.45, respectively (see Figure). The correlation for one- and six-day ahead forecast was found to have statistical significance at ten and seven months, respectively. The LNESg can be, therefore, a valuable predictor for detection of forecast busts in the regional forecast.