Systematic attribution of observed circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability

Christian L. E. Franzke

講演情報

[EJ] 口頭発表

セッション記号 M (領域外・複数領域) » M-GI 地球科学一般・情報地球科学

[M-GI29] [EJ] データ駆動地球惑星科学

2017年5月20日(土) 09:00 〜 10:30 A01 (東京ベイ幕張ホール)

コンビーナ:桑谷立(国立研究開発法人　海洋研究開発機構)、Kondrashov Dmitri(University of California, Los Angeles)、長尾大道(東京大学地震研究所)、Sergey Kravtsov(University of Wisconsin Milwaukee)、座長:新原隆史(東京大学総合研究博物館)、座長:桑谷立(国立研究開発法人　海洋研究開発機構)

10:15 〜 10:30

[MGI29-06] Systematic attribution of observed circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability

★招待講演

*Christian L. E. Franzke¹ (1.University of Hamburg)

キーワード：Regime States, Circulation Trends, Extreme Events, Clustering Method

The atmospheric circulation can be efficiently described by just a few regime states or teleconnection patterns. For the systematic identification of these regime states a novel space-time clustering method has been developed (FEM-BV-VARX). This method identifies persistent regime states which are important for predictions. In my presentation I will discuss the use of this method for the attribution of circulation trends and extreme events.