Systematic attribution of observed circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability

Christian L. E. Franzke

Presentation information

[EJ] Oral

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-GI General Geosciences, Information Geosciences & Simulations

[M-GI29] [EJ] Data-driven analysis, modeling and prediction in geosciences

Sat. May 20, 2017 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM A01 (Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall)

convener:Tatsu Kuwatani(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Dmitri Kondrashov(University of California, Los Angeles), Hiromichi Nagao(Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo), Sergey Kravtsov(University of Wisconsin Milwaukee), Chairperson:Takafumi Niihara(The University Museum, The University of Tokyo), Chairperson:Tatsu Kuwatani(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

10:15 AM - 10:30 AM

[MGI29-06] Systematic attribution of observed circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability

★Invited papers

*Christian L. E. Franzke¹ (1.University of Hamburg)

Keywords:Regime States, Circulation Trends, Extreme Events, Clustering Method

The atmospheric circulation can be efficiently described by just a few regime states or teleconnection patterns. For the systematic identification of these regime states a novel space-time clustering method has been developed (FEM-BV-VARX). This method identifies persistent regime states which are important for predictions. In my presentation I will discuss the use of this method for the attribution of circulation trends and extreme events.