11:30 AM - 11:45 AM
[MGI29-10] Detection of principal dynamical modes of changing climate
Keywords:nonlinear dynamical modes, data expansion, empirical modeling
In this work the method is used for reconstructing and studying the principal modes of global climate variability on inter-annual and decadal time scales, adjusted for the external forcings such as anthropogenic emissions, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the obtained modes as well as their response to external factors, e.g. forecast their change in 21 century under different CO2 emission scenarios, are discussed.
 Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510
 Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. CHAOS, 26(12), 123101. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4968852