JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

Presentation information

[EE] Oral

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS01] [EE] Environmental, socio-economic and climatic changes in Northern Eurasia

Sat. May 20, 2017 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 301A (International Conference Hall 3F)

convener:Pavel Groisman(NC State University Research Scholar at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina, USA), Shamil Maksyutov(National Institute for Environmental Studies), Elena Kukavskaya(VN Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences), Qiuhong Tang(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS), Chairperson:Shamil Maksyutov(National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan)

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM

[MIS01-03] A Review of and Perspectives on Global Change Modeling for Northern Eurasia

★Invited papers

*Erwan Monier1, David Kicklighter2, Andrei Sokolov1, Qianlai Zhuang3, Irina Sokolik5, Richard Lawford6, Martin Kappas7, Sergey Paltsev1, Pavel Groisman4 (1.Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2.Marine Biological Laboratory, 3.Purdue University, 4.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 5.Georgia Institute of Technology, 6.Morgan State University, 7.Georg-August-Universität Göttingen)

Keywords:Global change, Northern Eurasia, Earth System Models, Coupled human-Earth system, Climate change, Ecosystems

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic, and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services, including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances, and land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia represents both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Major modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic impacts in Northern Eurasia can have major implications for the biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.