[M-IS02] [EE] Dynamics of eruption cloud and cumulonimbus; modelling and remote sensing

[MIS02-01] Development of Volcanic Ash Plume Tracking Model PUFF and Estimation of the Airborne Ash Density

★Invited papers

*Hiroshi Tanaka¹, Masato Iguchi² (1.Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 2.DPRI, Kyoto University)

Keywords:Volcanic ash plume prediction, Emission rate of volcanic ash, Aviation safety, Kuchinoerabu-jima, PUFF model, Himawari-8

Airborne volcanic ash is a danger object for the aviation safety. Once the jet aircraft encounters the ash cloud and engine failure occurs, the damage is estimated to reach to a billion of US dollar. Hence the real-time monitoring and estimation of the airborne ash density is an important research subject. According to ICAO report, the ash density above 2 mg/m3 is a threshold for the danger zone of the aircraft. A system to predict the airborne ash density is desired based on the real-time observation of the emission rate and plume height.
In this study, we conducted numerical simulations of volcanic ash dispersal from Sakurajima volcano using the real-time volcanic ash plume dispersion model PUFF, combined with the real-time estimation of emission rate and plume height based on seismicity record. The PUFF model is applied to the eruption of Kuchinoerabu-jima in May 2015, and the airborne ash density was estimated based on the fallout data at Yakushima. According to the simulation, the ash plume movement agrees well with the satellite imagery by Himawari-8. The plume is located at 200 km from the volcano 8 hours after the eruption, and has the density more than 100 mg/m3. The simulated result offers important information of airborne ash density which is useful to the aviation safety.