[M-IS21] [JJ] 南北両極のサイエンスと大型研究

[MIS21-05] 極域予測年における日本の貢献

*猪上 淳^1,2、平沢 尚彦¹、末吉 哲雄¹ (1.国立極地研究所、2.海洋研究開発機構)

キーワード：北極・南極、天気予報・海氷予報、観測とモデル

To evaluate the impact of additional observation on the predictability of weather and sea-ice patterns at high latitude and beyond, Japan has contributed to establishing an experimental Arctic observing network as part of an international collaboration. It was shown that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts. Based on these achievements, Japan will extend this activity during the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), from mid-2017 to mid-2019, under the Japanese flagship projects, called ArCS (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability) and JARE (Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition). Using a data assimilation technique and observation data obtained from ships, land stations and drifting buoys under international collaborations, the impact of additional polar observations on predicting extreme evens in local (e.g. along Northern Sea Route) and remote regions (e.g. extreme weather events at mid-latitudes) will be assessed, contributing to optimizing a sustainable polar observing network on a cost-benefit basis.