JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

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[EE] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-IT Science of the Earth's Interior & Tectonophysics

[S-IT24] [EE] Stress geomechanics integrations: Observations, Modelings and Implications (OMI)

Wed. May 24, 2017 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM A09 (Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall)

convener:HungYu Wu(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Masataka Kinoshita(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Ayumu Miyakawa(Institute of Geology and Geoinformation (IGG), Geological Survey of Japan, AIST), Hsin-Hua Huang(Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica), Chairperson:HungYU WU(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Chairperson:Hsin-Hua Huang(Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica), Chairperson:Chung-Han Chan(Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University)

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[SIT24-05] Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for the applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments

*Chung-Han Chan1 (1.Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University)

Keywords:Coulomb stress change, earthquake forecasting, subduction zone

This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models to the regions with subduction systems, including the depth-component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To manifest the importance of depth-component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with that with two-dimensional cells. Through applications to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, the approaches with three-dimensional grids always obtain better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth-dependency for forecasting, especially for the applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time-dependency becomes crucial only during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.