JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

Presentation information

[EE] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS05] [EE] earthquake statistics, physics-based earthquake forecasting, and earthquake model testing

Wed. May 24, 2017 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM A05 (Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall)

convener:Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Chairperson:Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Chairperson:Kazuyoshi Nanjyo(University of Shizuoka)

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM

[SSS05-03] Earthquake modeling incorporating non-seismic data

*Peng Han1, Jiancang Zhuang1, Katsumi Hattori2, Yosihiko Ogata1 (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 2.Chiba University, Japan)

Keywords:Earthquake modeling, the self-exciting and mutually exciting model, GPS ground deformation, geo-electromagnetic variations

Although early studies suggested a certain amount of precursory information in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory at present. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Akaike from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying point process, which is composed of the background rate term, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Meanwhile, measurements of electromagnetic fields and GPS ground deformations have documented accumulative signals associated with large earthquakes during the past few decades. To date, a large number of statistical investigations have shown the correlation between these signals and large earthquakes. As an attempt, we are trying to develop new earthquake models which incorporate information from both earthquake catalog and non-seismic observations.