2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

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[SSS05-04] **A Mechanism Causing the Temporal Variation in b-values ****Prior to a Mainshock**

Keywords:earthquake precursor, b-value, precursor time, earthquake magnitude, water saturation, spring-slider model

_{1}, reaches its peak one at time t

_{2}, then begins to decrease from the peak one at t

_{2}, and returns to the normal one at time t

_{3}. As t>t

_{3}, the b-value varies around the normal one or rightly decreases with time until the occurrence of the forthcoming mainshock at time t

_{4}. The precursor time, T=t

_{4}-t

_{1}, of b-value anomalies prior to a forthcoming mainshock is related to the magnitude, M, of the event in a form: log(T)=q+rM (T usually in days) where q and r are two constants. In this study, the mechanism causing b-value anomalies prior to a mainshock is explored. From numerical simulations based on the 1-D dynamical spring-slider mode proposed by Burridge and Knopoff (1967), Wang (1995) found a power-law correlation between b and s, where the parameter s is the ratio of the spring constant (K) between two sliders to that (L) between a slider and the moving plate. The power-law correlation are b~s

^{-2/3}for the cumulative frequency and b~s

^{-1/2}for the discrete frequency. Since L of a source area is almost constant for a long time period, b directly relates to K. Lower K results in a higher b-value. Wang (2012) found K=ρ

_{A}v

_{p}

^{2}, where ρ

_{A}and v

_{p}are, respectively, the areal density and P-wave velocity of a fault zone. Experimental results show that v

_{p}is strongly influenced by the water saturation in rocks. The water saturation in the source area varies with time, thus leading to a temporal variation in v

_{p}as well as K. This results in the temporal variation in b-values prior to a mainshock. The modeled result is consistent with the observation.