4:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[SSS05-11] Earthquake forecast modelling for the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake and triggered Slow Slip Events
Keywords:New Zealand, earthquake forecasting, slow slip event
As is typical in such aftershock sequences, data quality issues have provided a challenge to the forecast modelling. The models we have applied are based on our past work and have used a hybrid of the STEP, ETAS and EEPAS models to produce the forecasts. An important change has been the use of the negative binomial distribution, constrained by ETAS simulations (Harte, 2013), to describe the uncertainty in the STEP rates. These uncertainties were also used to produce stochastic events sets for use in hazard calculations for engineering decisions (e.g., forecast design spectra as compared to the design standard or probabilities of landslide). To date the aftershock productivity has been low when compared to average New Zealand aftershock behavior.