[S-SS05] [EE] earthquake statistics, physics-based earthquake forecasting, and earthquake model testing

[SSS05-P02] Quantitative Analysis of Seismicity before Large Taiwanese Earthquakes Using G-R Law

*Hsien-chi Li¹, Chien-hsin Chang², Chien-chih Chen¹ (1.Nat. Central Univ., 2.CWB)

Keywords:G-R law, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, K-S test

Since the seismicity was identified as one example of natural nonlinear systems of which the distribution of frequency and earthquake magnitude follows a power law called “Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law”, the parameters of power law, i.e. the b- and the a-value, have been widely used in many researches about seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting model and many other topics. The plausibility of power-law model, or the applicability of parameter correspondingly, is crucial in these researches and is mainly verified by the statistical error σ of b-value in past, however, the effectiveness of σ remains doubtful. In this research, we used “p-value”, which was derived from an approach developed by Clauset et al. (2009), to deal with the problems mentioned above and had verified its effectiveness as a reliable plausibility index of the power-law model. Furthermore, we also verified the effectiveness of the K-S statistics as a goodness-of-fit test in estimating another crucial parameter, cut-off magnitude, which must be determined before estimating the parameters of power-law model.