[S-SS08] [EE] Earthquake Modeling and Simulation

[SSS08-01] Test of the predictability of PI method on the Tohoku M_w9.0 earthquake

*Yongxian Zhang¹, Cheng Song², Caiyun Xia³, Shengfeng Zhang⁴ (1.China Earthquake Networks Center, 2.Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, 3.Liaoning Earthquake Administration, 4.Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration)

Keywords:PI method, Tohoku Mw9.0 earthquake, predictability, ROC test, R score test

In this research, the local area (32.0°~46.0°N, 136.0°~148.0°E) including most of Japan was chosen to be the study region for verifying the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method under different models with different parameters using the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve test and R score test. Pattern Informatics (PI) method was applied to the retrospective study on the forecasting of large earthquakes especially the Tohoku M_w9.0 earthquake in this region. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The main calculating parameters were respectively the grid size of 0.5°×0.5° or 1.0°×1.0° and forecasting window lengths from 5 to 10 years. The results showed that in most of the models, the hotspots were in its Moore neighborhood grids or its epicentral grid in the forecasting windows containing the M_w9.0 Tohoku earthquake, which suggests that the PI method could forecast the Tohoku M_w9.0 earthquake. The results also showed that under the ROC test and R score test the models with larger grid size (1.0°×1.0°) and longer forecasting window length (7~10 years), the forecasting effect were better.