JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

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[EE] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS09] [EE] Rethinking PSHA

Wed. May 24, 2017 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM A07 (Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall)

convener:Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Ken Xiansheng Hao(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster(NIED)), Kuo-Fong Ma(Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Chairperson:Matthew Gerstenberger(GNS Science, New Zealand), Chairperson:Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Chairperson:Ken Hao(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan), Chairperson:Kuo-Fong Ma(Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC)

2:00 PM - 2:15 PM

[SSS09-02] Statistical characteristics of seismicity in the Kanto region detected by the 3D-ETAS model

*YICUN GUO1231, Naoshi Hirata1, Jiancang Zhuang2 (1.Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 2.Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo)

We apply the 3D-ETAS model in which the focal depth follows beta distribution to JMA catalog in the Kanto region. By stochastic reconstruction method, we find that the deep main shocks tend to trigger aftershocks at larger time and epicenter ranges than shallow main shocks. To the east of 140.5° E, the shallow main shocks are more productive, while it seems the opposite with the western part. The background seismicity increased to about 5 ~10 times in three months following the Tohoku earthquake, but recovered to pre-Tohoku level rapidly except for the shallow part of the east of 140.5° E, where the background seismicity remained about 3 times of the pre-Tohoku level. We carry out the simulation algorithm of the 3D-ETAS model, according to our results, the probability of a M7.0 event in southern Kanto region within 30 years is about 76.8 percent.