JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

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[EE] 口頭発表

セッション記号 S (固体地球科学) » S-SS 地震学

[S-SS09] [EE] Rethinking PSHA

2017年5月24日(水) 13:45 〜 15:15 A07 (東京ベイ幕張ホール)

コンビーナ:Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science)、はお 憲生(防災科学技術研究所 防災システムセンター)、Ma Kuo-Fong(Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC)、Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、座長:Gerstenberger Matthew(GNS Science, New Zealand)、座長:Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、座長:Hao Ken(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan)、座長:Ma Kuo-Fong(Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC)

14:00 〜 14:15

[SSS09-02] Statistical characteristics of seismicity in the Kanto region detected by the 3D-ETAS model

*YICUN GUO1231、Naoshi Hirata1、Jiancang Zhuang2 (1.Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo、2.Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo)

We apply the 3D-ETAS model in which the focal depth follows beta distribution to JMA catalog in the Kanto region. By stochastic reconstruction method, we find that the deep main shocks tend to trigger aftershocks at larger time and epicenter ranges than shallow main shocks. To the east of 140.5° E, the shallow main shocks are more productive, while it seems the opposite with the western part. The background seismicity increased to about 5 ~10 times in three months following the Tohoku earthquake, but recovered to pre-Tohoku level rapidly except for the shallow part of the east of 140.5° E, where the background seismicity remained about 3 times of the pre-Tohoku level. We carry out the simulation algorithm of the 3D-ETAS model, according to our results, the probability of a M7.0 event in southern Kanto region within 30 years is about 76.8 percent.