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[1N2-02] A Nonparametric Delayed Feedback Model for Conversion Rate Prediction
Keywords:CVR prediction, nonparametric estimation, display advertisement
There is generally a time delay (i.e., so-called delayed feedback) between the ad click and conversion.
In this paper, we propose a nonparametric delayed feedback model for CVR prediction that represents the distribution of the time delay without assuming a parametric distribution, such as an exponential or Weibull distribution.
Because the distribution of the time delay is modeled depending on the content of an ad and the features of a user, various shapes of the distribution can be represented potentially.
In an experiment on Criteo dataset, we show that the proposed model outperforms the existing method that assumes an exponential distribution for the time delay in terms of conversion rate prediction.