[2C3-OS-17] [Organized Session] OS-17

[2C3-OS-17-04] Multivariate analysis of the transition probability of an occupation of rental rooms by using the housing information website data

Preliminary analysis to develop the risk model of the rental home financing

〇Hayafumi Watanabe², Yu Ichifuji³, Masato Suzuki⁴, Satoshi Yamashita¹ (1. The institute of statistical mathematics, 2. Research Organization of Information and Systems, 3. Nagasaki University, 4. UD Asset Valuation Co., Ltd.)

Keywords:Apartment financing, Rental apartment, Housing information website data, Transition from a vacancy to an occupation, Multivariate analysis

The apartment loan is a loan for rentals such as for condos, apartments. This loan is a very large loan which is the account for a percentage of more than 10 percents of the whole banks' loan.
However, a risk model of the apartment loan with the appropriate accuracy has not been provided in Japan mainly due to the lack of data. Thus, in order to develop the risk model, we preliminarily analyse and compare two types of data set: the servey data which is made by the real estate appraiser and the housing information website data. As a result, it was found that (i)the web data is approximetly corresponding to the survey data which was made by exparts with respect to statitical properties, (ii)The AR value of the simple multivariate regression model developed in this study which explains the transion of rooms from vacancy to occupation takes about 0.4 and (iii)this transition probability of the model is mainly explained by an age of a building.