4:20 PM - 4:40 PM
[1D3-OS-10b-03] Statistical modeling of the transition time of an occupation of rental rooms by using the housing information website data
Keywords:Apartment loan, Statistical modeling, Housing information website data
This loan is a very large loan which is the account for a percentage of more than 10 percents of the whole banks' loan. However, a risk model of the apartment loan with the appropriate accuracy has not been provided in Japan mainly due to the lack of data. Thus, in order to develop the risk model, we analyzed the duration in which a vacant room become occupied by a tenant by using the housing information website data, as a first step. As a result, it was found that (i) This duration can be explained by the geometric distribution, and (ii) The mixture geometric regression model considering nonlinear effects can describe the data properties. In addition, coefficients of this model roughly consistent with the empirical common senses.