[3Yin2] Interactive session 1

[3Yin2-12] Is my opinion useful for others?

An analysis on a collective level

〇Itsuki Fujisaki¹, Hidehito Honda², Kazuhiro Ueda¹ (1.Univ. of Tokyo, 2.Otemon Gakuin University)

Keywords:Decision making, The wisdom of crowds, Simulation study

We often need to predict how much others will satisfy with something. In such situations, how can we predict it accurately? Previous studies have indicated that with reference to how much we enjoyed it, we could partially predict others’ satisfactions. Moreover, one previous method showed that the predictions could improve further. Simply put, the method makes participants evaluate twice for an item. However, the previous study only examined the case where a single person gave an opinion. In contrast, there are cases where multiple people give opinions in the real-world. Does the method remain effective even for these cases? We examined this issue using the behavioural data obtained in the previous study and conducted computer simulations. As a result, we found that the method worked effectively if there was one giver of opinion or a small group. We also discussed the implications of the results and the contribution of this study to the wisdom-of-crowd’s literature.