[2M4-OS-37a] OS-37

[2M4-OS-37a-05] Evaluating Timing of Movement Starts Using Counterfactual Virtuality in Ultimate

〇Shunsuke Iwashita¹, Keisuke Fujii^1,2 (1. Nagoya University, 2. RIKEN)

Keywords:Sports, Multi-Agent, Simulation

Ultimate is a sport played by two teams of seven players, where points are scored by passing a disc and catching it in the opposing team’s end zone. A unique rule of this sport is that the player holding the disc cannot move, making field dynamics primarily driven by other players’ movements. In particular, the timing of a receiver’s movement is a critical tactical factor. This study aims to propose a quantitative evaluation metric for the timing of players’ movements. First, game footage was recorded using a drone camera, and preprocessing was conducted to obtain players’ positional data. Next, players’ movements were detected using a rule-based approach, and multiple counterfactual scenarios were generated by shifting the timing of movements. These scenarios were analyzed using a space evaluation metric based on soccer’s pitch control, adapted to reflect the unique rules of Ultimate. By comparing the spatial evaluation values across scenarios, the difference between actual play and the most favorable counterfactual scenario was used to quantitatively assess the impact of movement timing. A model was then developed to propose improved movement timing for better tactical outcomes.